Monday, October 17, 2011
What if the Grand Plan is not so grand?
The G20 finance ministers met over the week-end and urged EU leaders to take decisive action by their Oct 23 meeting. The German finance minister is suggesting that this would not be a final solution and the end will "surely extends well into next year." German chancellor Merkel has stated that "dreams will not be fulfilled"
The plan is not supposed to be a"definitive solution" but will have a new Greece bail-out, recapitalization of banks who have been hurt by the Greek haircuts which should be about 50%, additional resources for the EFSF, and policies to make weaker countries more competitive.
So here we are on Monday waiting for what may happen over the next week-end. Should be be ready for something big or temper expectations? Should the rally of the last two weeks be reversed. What do we need to hear next. This is an extreme "commentary market" where what is said or implied drives market expectations. There is maximum uncertainty that could cause major market reversals.