Monday, November 28, 2011

China within the global crisis

China's Vice Premier Mr Wang issued a bearish forecast, saying he is "certain, among all uncertainties" that a long term global recession is going to happen, that it will be "chronic" and China, which relies highly on external demands, must see the situation clearly and focus on domestic problems (Reuters)

China will have to move on its own and not be dependent on global growth to drive their domestic growth.
This is a strong comment from China. It suggests that domestic growth will be a priority since there is a strong likelihood of global recession. Will this mean a more isolationist economic policy? We will have to see, but the three pillars of economic growth, the US, the EU, and China all look weaker than six months ago.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Greece failure - happy holidays?

There is in my opinion a very high probability that within weeks, or months at most, Greece will be forced to freeze bank deposits as a prelude to leaving the euro.  Mexico in 1994 and Argentina in 2001 chose the Christmas/New Year holiday season to announce their devaluations.  Will Greece follow suit?  

“If history repeats itself,” footballer Andrew Demetriou once pointed out, “I should think we can expect the same thing again.” 

from Michael Pettis Will Greece unravel by Christmas?

It seems likely there will have to be more action taken and the holidays would be a perfect period to get the action and word out without a major market malfunction. A break-up is a possible and it is the logistics which may be the hold-up.