Monday, October 10, 2011
Karl Popper on prediction
The course of human history is strongly influenced by the growth of human knowledge, but we cannot predict when human knowledge will be gained. Hence we cannot predict what will happen in the future.
The words of Karl Popper is the crux of the prediction problem. We do not know how events will unfold because the growth of knowledge is changing. We learn about new data. We hear about new policy alternatives and then we have to assess what its means. The market place see more knowledge and information flow than other places. Hence, there will be a higher level of uncertainty and a poorer ability to predict.