1990-94 - Decline the savings and loan recession period
1994-96 - Flat - The period of calm with stable US growth
1996-98 - Rising - The Asian crisis and LTCM crisis period
1999-02 - Flat - period of rising tech bubble
2002-07 - Decline - period of cheap money
2007-09 - Increasing - period of crisis
2009 - - Decline - period of post crisis calm
These periods were not without spikes but there was a general direction for volatility. Given the number of problems that may be faced by governments, it is not clear that 2010 will be another year of declining volatility. We expect that the market will be in a period of flat vol around the 20-25% range. We will not go back to the calm of 2004-2007.