Monday, October 10, 2011
Can the euro make a comeback?
ECB is less hawkish and the finance minsters are starting to develop better policies for the sovereign debt crisis. France and Germany are starting develop plans for shoring up banks hit with bad sovereign debt. There could be the potential for a gain in the euro. This could be a comeback, but it really was not the case that the euro fell that much. In the decade of its existence we have seen a significant increase in value of over fifty percent from lows and about 35 percent since the inception. With all of the EU problems, it hard to argue that we should see a 10-15 gain. A trading range is more likely.
The negatives for the euro are still strong. A recession in the EU is most likely of any major economic regions. The lack of clear fiscal and monetary policy is still present. An improvement in the sovereign debt problem is not same as a solution. There is no euro comeback just a lower chance of a major fall.