The IFO confidence survey in German is starting to swing upwards, but it has a long way to go to get back to anything close to normal. Still we have good evidence that once confidence starts to move upward the pick-up is strong. The exception was the 2001 recession. This information is euro positive and dollar negative. We are back in risk seeking mode for global markets.
The stock markets are reacting to all of this positive economic and earnings news by starting a strong rally. Commentators are saying that the economy is back to pre-Lehman levels. Well, that is an interesting question. If we have reversed the Lehman curse are we in a good spot with the global economy. The answer is no. We are still in worse shape than last summer, so do not break out the party hats just yet.
The stock markets are reacting to all of this positive economic and earnings news by starting a strong rally. Commentators are saying that the economy is back to pre-Lehman levels. Well, that is an interesting question. If we have reversed the Lehman curse are we in a good spot with the global economy. The answer is no. We are still in worse shape than last summer, so do not break out the party hats just yet.
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