Richmond Fed manufacturing survey exploded on the upside. This move since the beginning of the year has been largest reversal since the introduction of the survey. There was nothing like it in the previous recession. At this rate, we will hit new highs in another month or two. This also beat the market expectations.
Now, this was not viewed as important as the Conference Board consumer confidence numbers which actually fell this month, but we believe this is something to watch closely. We are not looking for green shoots but there is clear evidence that businesses are getting more comfortable with the environment. The PMI surveys around the world are showing the same pattern. What is interesting about the Richmond survey is that it is a mix of shipments (33%), new orders(40%) and employment (27%).
This is not just a feel good survey. Combine this with the better Case Shiller numbers and we might say there is reason for more risk taking around the globe.
Now, this was not viewed as important as the Conference Board consumer confidence numbers which actually fell this month, but we believe this is something to watch closely. We are not looking for green shoots but there is clear evidence that businesses are getting more comfortable with the environment. The PMI surveys around the world are showing the same pattern. What is interesting about the Richmond survey is that it is a mix of shipments (33%), new orders(40%) and employment (27%).
This is not just a feel good survey. Combine this with the better Case Shiller numbers and we might say there is reason for more risk taking around the globe.
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