Follow the business cycle performance curve grid

A very good graphic was in the NYT "Turning the Corner?" story. The live graphic looks at the business cycle through a two dimensional grid. On the vertical is growth compared with trend and on the horizontal, change in growth over the last six months. When growth is above trend and the change is positive, the economy is in expansion. When the change is negative but still above, trend the economy is in slowdown. When growth is below trend and negative, the economy is in downturn. Finally, if growth is below trend but there has been positive change in the last six month, the economy is in recovery.

We are clearly in a downturn that has not abated. The recovery will take time because of the distance that has to be covered to get some positive growth.