Is there a wisdom of crowds effect for macro forecasts? The answer is yes, per the new paper "On the wisdom of crowds (of economists)", but the impact of looking at more economists diminishes quickly. Whether the MSE, the change in the MSE from adding another economist, or looking at the relative improvement, the answer is all the same. Check or average a few economists but the marginal impact of looking at a large group is minimal. Most economists seem to come up with similar forecasts which is not surprising. No economist wants to be an outlier relative to their peers, and most economists use the same models or frameworks which means they are likely to derive the same result. There is no value from looking at a big crowd of economists on the big macro questions.
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