Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Mr Momentum driving stocks - but unlikely to last


It is the year of momentum (last 12-months). You have to go back to 1999 to see the same type of concentrated momentum. Now we know that this is concentrated in technology and specifically the Mag 6, but that does not change the fact that holding momentum has been the best strategy especially versus the fully diversified equal-weighted index.

Party like it 1999 because it is likely that this momentum environment will not last. We don't want to be trapped by the law of small numbers, but it seems as though these factor extremes will have to adjust or normalize. We are still in a high interest rate environment which should suggest a tilt to quality or value. 

 

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