Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Looking beyond the Magnificent 6 or 7


 

If you are looking for breadth in equities, you will not find it. A majority of stocks in the S&P 500 are underperforming the index. You will have to go back to 1998-1999 to get similar results. The Russell 2000 is at the same level as it was in early 2021, and the Russell 2000 and SPX equal-weighted index are both underperforming the mega-cap stocks. There is a limited wealth effect for the those who own the broad market. 

This is not a bear market, but all the arguments that the cost of capital has increased and thus making the present value of earnings lower holds true. There may not be a credit constraint for tech, but there are constraints for smaller cap stocks. There may not be a constraint on pricing for mega-caps but there is one for smaller caps. Earnings seem to be holding well, but the future expectations may not consider the current behavior a trend. 






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