“My favorite formula was about success, and I wrote success equals talent plus luck and great success equals talent plus a lot of luck.” Moreover, “[t]alent is necessary but it’s not sufficient, so whenever there is significant success, you can be sure that there has been a fair amount of luck.”
- Daniel Kahneman Nobel Prize Winner
Luck can occur without talent. You can have talent and just not be lucky. Always think about this with investment management. There are a lot of smart money managers, but only few are able to generate strong returns in any year. Even fewer can do it through time. So if you are a good manager, try and assess where luck drove your success. It will be a humbling experience.
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