Saturday, February 17, 2024

YOLO credit bubble - is that a thing




There has been talk about the YOLO credit bubble - the You Only Live Once effect of spending money as if there is no tomorrow or tomorrow, when the bill is due, does not matter.  I am skeptical of this story, but there should be some concerns about consumer credit. First, consumer loans are still high but have come down from its highs. The growth in the economy has been fed by consumer spending after major retrenchment during COVID. Second, the delinquency rate for credit card consumer debt is now at highs not seen since the post-GFC period. If there is a slowdown in the economy, this rate will only go higher. 

Credit has grown after a retrenchment. Delinquencies have grown after a period when there was credit forbearance. Some of this is normalization. Some of this is also a sign that more consumers are using credit; however, we are not at a bubble stage. 

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