Saturday, April 15, 2023

China - US relationship founded on false narratives?


Stephen Roach is a long-time Wall Street economist who was the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia for several years and a current fellow at Yale University. He has been commented on China-US relations for decades through his varied experiences. His new book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives, is an attempt to address the key problem of how to get the two major powers of the world to candidly talk with each other in a construction manner. 

Roach covers ground that many have already explored. There is a shared history. There is a strong codependency with China having high excess savings and the US engaged in excessive spending. The savings imbalance links both countries in a close relationship whether anyone likes it. The savings imbalance story is hard for policymakers to understand. Setting up tariffs and trade constraints is not going to solve the problem. Micro solutions to macro problems are providing the wrong first aid for chronic problems. This applies to both the US and China. China needs to reduce savings and become more consumer focused. The US needs to increase savings and investment. 

The US has a false narrative about China motivations and actions which are often economically rational, and the China has false narratives that are generated to maintain the current power structure within China. The extension of current narratives lead to conflict as each party responds to real and perceived falsehoods. Standing down through cooperation is an optimal solution yet is not the solution that most will choose. Game theory, while not explicitly discussed, provides us with a framework of how solutions can be found, yet the obvious solution is not always the first choice when politics are driven by rhetoric targeted to the average citizen of each country. 

Roach provides detailed information on China and US relations and each reaction over the last few decades, but the overall story could have been condensed into a tighter presentation. I agree with his false narrative presentation, but I am afraid that this framework is simplistic and does not address the complexities of the competitive conflict that has arisen over the last two decades. We have expected that by having China enter the WTO, it would be ripe for change into a more democratic/ capitalist country. This was a false premise that is the crux of the current problem. 

Can both countries move beyond the false narratives described by Roach? I am not optimistic. False narratives are hard to reverse because the falsehoods are often wrapped in some basic truths. China and the US are competitors, yet for the good of the world this competition must be tempered though finding a common ground of trust. 

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