Wednesday, September 7, 2022

When in a slowdown, take sector beta risk off the table.


 Looking at the current beta for each major US market sector shows the relative risk across the market, (66-day moving average, current value). Given the current economic expectation of a slowdown to a recession, the portfolio structure is clear. Buy low beta consumer staples, utilities, and health care, (XLP, XLU, and XLV) and sell communication services, technology, and consumer durables, (XLC, XLK, and XLY). If the portfolio exposure is dollar neutral, it would have a short beta tilt. 

This long/short portfolio is consistent with what has been historically a defensive portfolio during a market slowdown, see:
 

Sector rotation across the business cycle - relative and absolute performance.


All these sectors have fallen since Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole comments, but the higher beta sectors have seen greater declines in return.


 

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