Wednesday, September 7, 2022

Policy uncertainty between world, EU, and US growing


Economic policy uncertainty provides a good measure on what the economic risk environment looks like for investors beyond classic volatility measures. A high uncertainty reading should negatively impact global investment. Capital will not be deployed in new projects if the policy future is unclear. 

There is a growing uncertainty gap between developed countries outside the US and the US. Given geopolitical risks (the war in Ukraine), the ongoing energy crisis, and economic sanctions, policy choices and decisions are in a state of flux. New global investments will be curtailed and the slowdown in the global economy will deepen. The US uncertainty picture is stable but subject to high volatility. Nee investment is not likely to support a growth story.

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