Monday, May 9, 2022

Where are consumers spending? It matters for markets

Where are consumers spending money? It matters given the overall market weakness. We should expect greater dispersion in equities because the there is greater dispersion in expenditures. There has been greater spending on gasoline because of the oil price shock and this has been reflected in integrated oil companies. The big switch is from buying things to doing things - goods to service switch.


Consumers are traveling which reflects the switch from goods to services.

                    

The switch is reflected in the relatively better performance of staples over durable equity indices and the strong performance of energy. However, spending comes at a cost, a decline in savings. During the pandemic the combination of restrictions and fiscal policy lead to spike in savings; nevertheless, we are now at the lowest savings in a decade. Inflation forces spending to move forward, but a decline in wealth will cause savings to increase with a reduction in spending.

Relating spending to equity choices requires both absolute and relative analysis.











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