Monday, May 16, 2022

What is the optimal inflation target - Not what you may think



Would it surprise you to find out that there is no agreement that a 2% inflation target is the right number? In fact, a careful review of all the academic papers on monetary policy and inflation target suggest that the best number is zero. There is no magic with a 2% target. There is limited rationale for that number so there should not be any magic goal to get back to 2%. There still is a relentless fall in purchasing power even at the 2% number.  See Fed economist, Anthony Diercks, "The Reader's Guide to Optimal Monetary Policy", also see his interactive app on optimal monetary policy research

I just found this research and it is very provocative given it is a summation of all work on this topic. We have picked an inflation target that may not match research. Does this help us today? No, but we should place less stock in what the Fed may tell us as optimal. 






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