Thursday, April 7, 2022

You are not the boss, the market situation is the boss

Situations drive business profits and returns not managers and investors. Strategies are developed, but they only work if the market environment or situation allows for profits. We may think we are the boss or control market situations, but generally the situations control us. The market is the boss. At best, we have to manage up and adapt. At worst, we accept that we do not have control and that we must react to the environment that we face. 

We cannot control war. We cannot control Fed policy. We cannot control shifts in demand and consumer tastes. We must bend to the situation presented. However, we can react and respond, so identification and response time is critical.

For the trend-follower, it is the identification and response time to price behavior. For the relative value trader, it is identification of misallocations. In both cases the market activity is bossing your decisions. 

Investors are not helpless to market situations bossing your behavior. Investors can prepare for different scenarios. Investors can be resilient to shocks and manage risks, but they will always be reactors to market behavior. We can only take what the markets will give us. Understanding who is in control can reduce anxiety and allow for focusing on responses to market shocks. 

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