Thursday, April 28, 2022

Inflation is a global problem well before the Ukraine War


Inflation is a global problem and an advanced economy problem as well as an EM issue. It is not a Russia-Ukraine War problem albeit the war has contributed to the recent commodity (food and energy) inflation. It is a global excess liquidity problem. See Agustin Carstens BIS speech "The Return of Inflation".  

It is a broad problem with even the bottom 25th percentile showing inflation above 5% for AE and 7% for EM. This inflation has been a surprise with last year and mid-year forecast both suggesting much lower estimates. While the Fed may tighten, there is still excess liquidity from the BOJ and ECB. There needs to be global coordination to eliminate global inflation.

 


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