Tuesday, November 6, 2012

What is happening with commodities


The dispersion of commodities shows that if we take away grain markets this has not been a good year for holding commodities. So what is the cause?

Slow growth. Monetary stimulus has not inflated commodity prices like financial assets. Equities have seen  strong  increases because valuations are up and earnings have been up even on slower sales. The earnings are higher based on the control of costs and limited investments with cash holdings. There is a search for higher yield in financial assets but the search has not moved to commodities outside of the long-term uptrend in precious metals.

The cost of holding commodities is lower with interest rates close to zero, but the funding costs have not been enough to force commodity prices up across the board. There is a decoupling between financial and commodity real markets.

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