Friday, November 23, 2012

Change in China government more important than US election

Xi Jinping is the new head of the communist party in China as the general secretary of the Central Committee and this may be more important than the US re-election of President Obama. China has moved from the six the largest economy to the second largest in the last decade, but growth has slowed and exports as a key driver may be a thing of the past. 

Now the theory of Kexue fazhan guan or the scientific outlook on development developed by Hu Jintao will be put to the test. Economic development is messy and a conservative government may not have the stomach to allow freer markets and less emphasis on state enterprise as a solution to China's problems. 

The ramifications for the rest of the world will be significant. We have gone done the path of controlled or scientific modeling of economic growth. The result has usually been failure, so it will be interesting to see how the internal consumption wealth distribution and growth will be addressed. Will it be through freer expression of capitalism or more state control? This is an Eastern variation of the Hayek versus Keynes battle. 

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