Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Dollar - stock correlation has not changed



In spite of all of the changes in the global economy, the relationship between the dollar and equities has stayed relatively stable. The negative relationship between holding dollars and stocks as a risk-on versus risk-off trade is still in place. There have been some periods of reversal, but the strong negative relationship is still hard to trade against. Poor economics will boost the dollar and cause a dollar sell-off. The relationship is less strong for the S&P 500, it gets stronger for the MSCI world and emerging market stocks. 

The dollar is still a hedge of choice for markets when it comes to risk trading. This has a negative impact on currencies as an independent asset class.

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