Sunday, October 14, 2012

Commodities and gold versus TIPs


Commodities are not highly correlated to the TIPs market. Gold on the other hand has shown a more consistent relationship. A comparison of the DJUBS commodity index and the Barclay's TIPs index over the last three years shows that there is little relationship between the two. The rolling correlation shows that there is a strong movement from positive to negative moves. Overall the correlation is low. The rent history suggests a strengthening of the link but these periods do not last for long.

The relationship between TIPs and gold is much tighter. In fact, there is reason to believe that the gold TIPs relationship is exploitable. Given both are supposed to be inflationary expectations, they serve as closer substitutes.

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