Monday, September 10, 2012

No ECB rate cut but Monetary Outright Transactions - good news?

The ECB kept rates steady at 75 bps even though many were expecting a 25 bp cut in the benchmark rate. This is a different policy from the stance taken by the Fed which moved to a zero rate. It is good news for the Euro which should gain or stay steady in response to the unchanged rates. 

The more interesting part of this no action is that it signals that the ECB will focus on the sovereign debt problem with their new Monetary Outright Transactions program. The purchases will be sterilized and without seniority relative to other bondholders. There will not be the same collateral requirements of the past. The objective is to use the buying power of the ECB to by risky debt and sell riskless or less risky debt. You want to spin straw into gold by increasing the demand for bad assets in an effort to make them less bad by lowering the risk premium. The whole idea of having higher rates is to ration the supply of debt and stop poor credits from borrowing. That will not happen with this program. There is no provision of providing liquidity and asking for collateral to protect the central bank. 

Is this different? yes. Is this supposed to be the action of the central bank within their traditional role as the lender of last resort? I don't think so.

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