Saturday, September 22, 2012

"Lead or leave currency bloc" Soros on Germany

The Soros comment seems to represent the current wisdom of many around the world, especially those who are debtors. This is not a choice of Soros but of the German people.

Germany has been a beneficiary of an attractive Euro and global growth. Germany has also been able to take advantage of cost cutting earlier to be a export engine within the EU. Unfortunately, the gains in productivity came at a price of controlled wages and income growth. The German people have not been able to take full advantage of their export benefits. Now, the rest of the world wants them to be a larger creditor to the rest of Europe or leave. Current polls suggest that the choice if put to a vote is a flip of a coin.

If Germany leads, it will only be by reluctance. The politics will continue to place an uncertainty wedge in financial markets.

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