Friday, February 17, 2012

One graph which shows the risk of the Euro-zone


There clear country risk premiums in the Euro-zone before the development of the single currency. The arrival of the Euro changed Europe and took away all of the risk premium. Credit risk was a thing of the past because there would be constraints on the size of budget deficits. There would be no currency risk inside Europe. There would be no inflation differentials with a single currency. Current account deficits would exist but it would not matter with a single currency. This lasted for less than a decade. Now we are back to risk premiums, inflation differentials, current account deficits, and budget deficits. The world has returned to the 1990's but there will now be  single currency. A more structured snake or EMS. However, countries will not have flexibility with their own monetary policy. It is unclear what was gained if we took out the 2000-2008 period. 

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