Friday, February 17, 2012

The debt problem and default


As debt goes up, bad things happen around the globe. An increase in the total public debt to GDP is generally not sustainable. There will be defaults and an increase in inflation. Nevertheless, it is not clear what is the timing and link between the two. The turn of the century showed high debt levels and no default. The great Depression was a different period with large defaults. The 1980's was also a very unique and special period with defaults and high inflation. Now we are hitting very high levels of debt but we have yet to see the increases in default and inflation. If history is a guide, it should follow.

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