Friday, August 12, 2011

Trade deficit pessimism

Trade deficit pessimism should increase with the recent numbers. The deficit, at $53 billion has reached a 32 month high and tells us that we will not be able to grow our way out of the current employment problem based on exports. The economic policy of the US has been based on lowering the dollar to push exports up. Unfortunately, exports are more tied to economic growth than prices in the short-run. If economic growth in the rest of the world slows, there will be a decline in exports form the US and the trade deficit will worsen. This will offset any policy to have lower prices drive exports.

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