Thursday, August 25, 2011

Who is the importer of last resort?

The US has usually been the importer of last resort for the last few global business cycles. The US was always good for helping with excess global demand even if it was through borrowed money. The rest of the world would finance the purchases made by the US for the goods bought by US consumers. It was a nice system and would work well in conjunction with beggar thy neighbor policies of lowering currencies to make exports to the US more attractive. Consumers would get a benefit.

The issue is that the US now wants to be an export driven economy and not a consumer driven buyer.If this is to be the case, there has to be a new importer of last resort. Could it be China? This is the one of the elephant in the room questions. If China imports more, then it will change its role from a export powerhouse to the importer of choice for the rest of the world. This is what the rest of the world would like including the US, but it is not clear whether it will happen in the short-run.

No comments: