Thursday, January 17, 2008

Philly index falls out of bed


The decline of 20.9 was the worst monthly number since October 2001 which was affected by the 9/11 event. Prior to October, the survey turned down at the beginning of 2001 which is consistent with the last recession. The biggest decline came from the new orders and average employee workweek. The six month ahead numbers was slightly positive but were half of what was reported last month.

The Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received.

See http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos0108.pdf

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