Thursday, August 27, 2026

The sobering math of the US bond deficit

 

The US deficit-bond math isn't very attractive. The primary deficit is improving strongly toward levels closer to the 2015-2019 period, but we are not seeing the same improvement in the total deficit, which is now persistently below 5%.

The fiscal primary deficit was 2.6% of GDP for FY2025, but the total deficit was 5.8%. We are away from the pandemic-era extreme deficits, but in a perfect world, some of those extremes should be reversed, not just reduced.  

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