Risk is not uncertainty

“For uncertain matters there are no calculable probabilities whatsoever. We simply do not know.” -Keynes 

As we move into the new year, we hear projections about what will happen in 2026. It is a fool's errand. These projections are often not grounded in risk assessments, which are countable and measurable. They are framed in narratives. More importantly, they are focused on uncertainty, which means there are no calculable probabilities. Some have defined this as radical uncertainty, but we do not need the adjective. We just do not know the likelihoods, and in most cases, the analysts of these forecasts will not provide probabilities. They are just stories and should be viewed as such.