Professional forecasters worse than a flip of a coin

 

Don't put much stock in the view of professional forecasters, they are worse than a flip of a coin. See St Louis Fed research, "Professional Forecasters’ Outlook for 2023 and Caveats Based on Past Performance". 

The consensus shows that real growth will only be .3% for the year, inflation will come in at 4%, and unemployment will be at 4.4%. There is little deviation in the Blue Chip forecasts. This is the common knowledge, yet it is highly likely that what everyone may agree to will not occur. Therefore, it is important to think about how you create views around the consensus which are actionable. 

We always focus on the road map. One, know where you are in the economic cycle. Two, know where you are going in the cycle. Three, know where everyone else is headed or thinking. This is not often easy work, but it makes for better success with any investment strategy. 

If you cannot determine where you are or if you want a simple guide, follow the traffic which is the trend in prices.