Saturday, December 3, 2022

Kindleberger cycle and current bubble markets

 


There is a lot of talk about bubbles and manias especially with respect to blockchain and cryptocurrencies. There has been a lot of hype and it is likely that many of the dreams associated with this technology will either never be realized or only realized in the more distant future; nevertheless, bubbles may have a social good because it funnels capital to new technologies. 

New technologies that are given capital can lead to increased productivity and provide a positive social and economy good. This may not be the best way to fund new technology because there will be damage when a bubble burst, but it is worth considering how bubble cycles can be an engine for growth. See KINDLEBERGER CYCLES: METHOD IN THE MADNESS OF CROWDS? by Randall Morck 

There are positive externalities from bubbles and manias that will provide an engine for growth. Perhaps some of the bubble with EV and green technology will be the driver for elevated productivity and enhanced growth? Productivity and growth are not just the mixing of capital and labor. There often needs to be a catalyst to provide a spark for growth.  



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