Sunday, February 5, 2017

Global macro on one page - More of the same

Just because there is the passage of time does not mean that market themes will change. The big issues could be unresolved with no information that will change expectations. We are at one of those times. 

Put politely, there is a lot going on with the new Trump Administration, but that does not mean market uncertainty has been resolved or macro policy has been outlined. We would argue that little has been resolved with macroeconomics and policy may have actually gotten more uncertainty. 

The TPP trade deal has been pulled but what is next is less clear. For tax policy, we have little new information on next steps. The same can be said for fiscal policy. New regulation may on hold, but a regulatory uncertain environment is not a pro-business environment. The Fed should be on track to raise rates, but with fiscal policy and the dollar direction highly uncertain caution may still be the watch word for policy. 

The major themes for February have not changed since last month. Nothing has been changed to place something else in our big three list. Many of the factors themes have not changed. There is little new economic information to cause a change. We still believe we will move between two extremes, our bimodal world, but the big moves are not going to be revealed in the short-run. 

No comments: