Wednesday, July 6, 2016
Market themes on one page for July
Post-Brexit uncertainty will hang over the markets which may not allow for strong risk-on behavior. The fall-out with policy is simple. The Markets view the Fed is on hold for the rest of the year. We are in a "one-and-done" world. Markets are in transitional phase between BREXIT and US presidential election. Both these events create a veil of uncertainty that dampens trading.
What is clear is that globalization is under assault. Trade growth has slowed by half since the Financial Crisis. The engine of trade will not be a solution to global growth. This will impact equities, fixed income, and commodities. This theme is not something that generates short-term trades but it is a headwind that will limit the upside for risky assets.