Production has to be matched with demand or end usage, and if there is an imbalance, the residual will be placed in storage, yet storage is not passive. Storage also serves as a signal of future high prices. If a market is in contango, suppliers can hold inventory, hedge and end up in a good financial place even if markets are priced fairly. Ending stocks are at new highs, so there is a strong stock buffer if production falls. The size of the buffer relative to production is strong. You have to go back to 2000 to see similar levels.
Trend-followers are non-predictive and only rely on price as the signal, but a more macro approach that accounts for other information suggest caution on the long side. Alternatively, consistency of signal and fundamentals on the short-side of the market have made for better opportunities.