Saturday, March 5, 2016
Global macro themes for March on one page
One month makes a big difference. We have gone from a hugely negative equity environment, oil crash fears, a credit downturn, and Fed policy mistakes to strong equites, an oil rally, and less credit risk. The economic environment has not changed radically, but when risk appetite changes the asset markets around the world change.
Can this last? This will be the number one question for March. We think there are still major headwinds to stop a sustained rally, but data change and markets change. Nevertheless, there needs to be confirming economic information to sustain the current rally.