Saturday, August 15, 2015

Enterprise and speculation - there is a need for balance

Enterprise - "Forecasting the prospective value of the asset over it entire life. "
Speculation  - "Forecasting the psychology of the market."

"When enterprise becomes a mere bubble on the whirlpool of speculation, the job of capitalism will be ill-done"
-Keynes


Are we in a whirlpool of speculation? Seems like it depends on which asset class. With a clear focus on Fed action, there is little talk of the enterprise value in fixed income. A similar story could be applied to equities when the focus is on Fed policy.  There is value with trying to balance analysis on enterprise value and speculation. Both are needed but they have to be weighted effectively versus what others are doing. Unfortunately for the trader, if the market as a whole focuses on speculation spending time making bets on enterprise will be a losers game in the short-run. 

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