Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Weather still issue with crops

The best agricultural forecasts can always go wrong for one simple reason, the weather. With a combination of rains and early frost, the corn and soybean crops may not meet the yield expectations of just a few weeks ago. A light frost can cut yields by about 5% and will reduce denting. A hard killer frost will cut yields by 10-12 percent. Rain will slow the harvest which will also affect yields. The high numbers from the South will not hold in the upper Midwest.

 The current weather patterns are not enough to change the overall direction of price but it will add volatility and cut the downward momentum in these markets. A period of consolidation will occur as the harvest numbers come in and validate earlier forecasts.

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