Thursday, June 5, 2014

Are central banks just watching equities?



There has been significant talk about the big moves in the US stock market but it should be compared with respect to others around the world. Yes, the US is ahead of other markets in this rally but there is a simple reason if you follow the money.

I get the feeling that central banks are just as focused on equities as regular investors. The difference is that they can do something about if they do not like the price. Let's look at equity behavior and central bank behavior. 

The US has consistently used QE programs to boost the economy and equity markets. More money, more return. No money, no return. The BOJ has been a little late to the monetary table, but increased money in 2013 ad saw a nice gain in stock markets. Now that the Nikkei index has flat-lined there is talk about more monetary action. The Bank of China has tried to dampen speculative excess in economy. Here there has been no gains in equities and now more talk of loosening policy. Finally, there is the EU stock markets which has followed the US with a growing gap. This gap could be related to the less aggressive ECB policies. Now with the latest policy changes, it is clear that the ECB wants to close that gap. 

Follow the equity markets through following the stimulus. Same old story of not fighting the central banks? At some point, investors will have to think differently. That time has yet to come.

No comments: