Saturday, February 1, 2014

Free trade and the EM crisis

There is more at stake than currency declines in EM countries which have bad current account deficits. The poor EM environment will have spill-over for trade and this will hurt the world. Trade growth has fallen below global growth in the last year. Capital flows have declined significantly since the Financial Crisis. Trade agreements around the globe have stalled and a recent survey of the G20 shows that there has been a 23% increase in protectionist measures since 2009. The growth in protectionism is even higher when you move beyond the G20. It is not clear that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will be agreed to by the US and Asia. 

Now we have currency devaluations which will make imports more expensive. Exports for these countries will be cheaper but devaluation usually hurt growth in the short-run as central banks raise rates to protect from further currency slides. Tightening monetary policy, capital controls, currency uncertainty, and growth disruptions all spell the same thing for trade, less good and services moving around the world. 

Who is going to be an advocate for global trade? Where is the policy coordination? The global markets needs leadership and it is not clear who is going to provide it. 

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