Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Yen and currency wars

The yen continues its march lower based on the expectation that the BOJ will get serious about a 2% inflation target. The market has been expecting this for years, but this seems like the first time that the government and central bank will be coordinated with policy. Of course, the BOJ has had little say about their independence given the strong tactics of the new government to announce the new monetary policy and back it up with a change in personnel.  

Abenomics is going to be in place to jump-start the Japanese economy. Some have started to comment about a new currency war, but the Japanese economic minister states that this is not currency manipulation but a result of  change in policy to hit the higher inflation target. Rightly so, there has not been active intervention but a change in policy, and a clear change in monetary policy will affect exchange rates. Rational expectations tell us this is the outcome. The Japanese government states that the falling yen is just the results of market economics. 

This new policy is a double edged sword. One the one hand, world governments have been pushing for action by the Japanese government to inflate the economy, yet now that it is happening there are some who say that the currency is being manipulated for the advantage of the Japanese. You cannot have it both ways. The currency war is now about what exactly the rest of the world would like from Japan.

No comments: