Sunday, January 6, 2013

Wait - a muddle of good ideas, think about it


Frank Partnoy provides many useful stories on the need to wait on decision-making, but the case for waiting is not overly convincing. Working fast has benefits. If you gather information faster, then you have more time for analysis, but that is not the same as gathering all information and then delaying action. Waiting under the view that something better may be learned by not deciding, is not an appropriate action.

 He starts with the idea that quick reflexes in some sports allows for more time to make a decision. This is not the same as waiting. Poor reflexes does not allow any time for a decision. The action passes you by. This is not the same as waiting. He discusses comic timing and the power of delay. The book has a chapter on wait time for apologies. Procrastination is tool to sort through what is important. The process of discounting is very complex for humans and we generally have a problem with short-term gratification delay. Innovation takes time and not usually associated with one moment of inspiration. Interesting, but not strong enough to use as a base for decision-making.

Partnoy wants to make the argument that if you are not sure what to do, it may be better to do nothing. Don't just do something, sit there! His argument is not well developed once he moves beyond the neurobiology research of fast reaction.

There are strong argument to react fast as well as slow.  He makes the argument that we have hidden biases that will be used if we react too fats. Here he is on firmer ground in arguing that we have to delay to think about our decisions and avoid unconscious biases. This delay will avoid making rash judgments through "thin-slicing". Pattern recognition is generally effective,  but there will be biases that can lead to wrong judgments. The power of the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) decision paradigm should not be confused as a basis for waiting as a paradigm. Thinking is critical and if you slowdown, you can think through options. The premium is on thought not waiting.    

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