Saturday, November 12, 2011
The change in oil geopolitics
The reserves in Canada are growing as higher prices make tar sands more viable. Deep water off-shore in Brazil should be huge albeit expensive and hard to reach in the short-run. Mexico may see greater drilling to offset the poor US regulatory environment. The US nautral gas business is exploding with new reserves. The rest of Latin America will see more reserve growth.
If all of this comes to reality, there will be a change in the geography of oil. The center of the energy industry will start to move away from the Middle East. The long-term implications are significant. The Middle East will become less important to the US. The political risk of oil will decline. The chance of disruptive policy shocks will decline.