Saturday, November 12, 2011

Berkeley Earth confirms warming

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Group has done an outstanding job at providing a stronger statistical foundation for measuring the historical global warming. One of the largest problems has been the diverse data used to make judgments on global temperature changes. The data has multiple start and end dates. Multiple sites and measurement techniques. The data are from various research sources with different time lengths and reporting stations. They have been able to blend 1.6 billion records from 15 different data sources.

There is the potential for significant error in the data so that false conclusions or counterarguments can be used to draw different conclusions. The Berkeley group uses new methods to fill in the gaps and smooth the rough parts of the data. They are able to draw similar conclusions as other scientist but with greater strength from the data. Global temperatures have increased about 1 degree C since the 1950's. Even though some areas (about 1/3) have showed cooling, 2/3rd of the sample station showed warming and the overall result is consistent with the finding of other researchers.

The implications are strong. We can expect more warming and more weather volatility which will translate into greater commodity risk.

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