Gloom in long-term commodities

"Civilization and anarchy are only seven meals apart"   -Spanish Proverb

The long-term prospects for commodities is good because there is a gloom about the ability of firms to generate the supply necessary to feed and provide for the world. This negativity has been the recurring Malthusian argument for investing in commodities. While this argument may be true, the short-run dynamics are still driven by the business cycle and risk-taking. 

Look at the current correlation between three leading commodities and equities. Contrasting copper, crude oil and corn with the S&P 500, we find the following correlations .57, .83, and .15. These correlations can change quickly on a rolling average basis, but all suggest that commodities are tied to the business cycle and will have less association with long-term demand.