Sunday, September 25, 2011

Debt divergence between develped and emerging markets

A quick comparison of developed and emerging market debt shows a stark difference in fiscal prudence. Looking at the last ten years, we find that developed country debt has exploded while emerging market debt has actually declined. Some of the emerging amrket decline is from their faster growth, but that does not offset the argument that they have showed more fiscal prudence than the developed countries who have used their ability to borrow to offset their slower growth rates and maintain income levels. 

Debt/GDP for country groups 

2001          2001
Developed Emerging
65%           90%

2011           2011
Developed  Emerging 
45%            35%

The rating agencies still do not seem to get it. There is a significnat change in soverieign finances which is chnaging the dynamics of the international finance. Who will be financing who in the next ten years?

No comments: