Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Is this what the Fed wants?

We have had a stock market rally and bond sell-off since the Fed's announcement of QE2. The US still needs low rates and we have it for the short-end but holder rates has not been attractive. Housing will be hurt because mortgage rates will go up, unemployment will rise, because financing will be more expensive, loans will default and bank will be hurt on their carry trades.The idea of financing short and locking in longer rates has been a disaster for many bond traders.

It is not clear that this is the result wanted by Ben Bernanke wanted when he announced the Fed program. We have not heard whether he is pleased or not. We know the buying program will continue, but what the Fed really wants are stable markets and it does not have that result in fixed income.

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